Get Moving For Life Blog

It is often difficult to predict our performance in athletic events and in business. Remember, we can only predict our own performance -- not our placement. Sometimes we get caught up in gathering more and more information because we think we don't have enough to make a precise or accurate decision to achieve our desired result. Or we get stuck thinking that we don't have any information. Even our gut instinct is going on some information that we have, but may not be entirely aware of.

I recently read a book called, How to Measure Anything in Business. In this book, Douglas Hubbard teaches us how to become more confident and more accurate in measurements. He demonstrates that decisions can be made even if we think we don’t have any information (which we actually do if we think about it). This includes "intangibles" which are often thought of as immeasurable.

Estimating from one's past performance is often one of the best ways to predict future performance. I have accumulated several years of past performances including the BMO Vancouver Half and Full Marathons, the Sun Run, the Grouse Mountain Run and many Biathlon races to help me figure out how long it might take me to complete the Seek the Peak in July 2010. Other pieces of my puzzle are 2009’s race results for the BMO Grouse Mountain Run (GMR) and Seek the Peak. The winner in my age group (30-39 years old) of the GMR competed in both. Another method is to complete fitness assessments related to your sport. I have past Max VO2 tests and recently completed a Running Blood Lactate Balance Point Test with Nicola Gildersleeve.

Step 1: Gather Information

2009 BMO Grouse Mountain Run (GMR)

Alfred 40: 40 min

Age-Group Winner (AGW) 31: 31 min

2009 Seek the Peak

Stage 3 Time AGW of GMR 38:16 min

AGW of GMR Total Seek the Peak Time 1:36:59

2010 Lactate Balance Point: 170 bpm at 7.00 miles per hour

1999 Max VO2: 69 ml/min/kg according to a bike with respiratory measurements

2010 Max VO2: Polar Own Zone as of March 1 - 56 ml/min/kg. As of April 10 - 70ml/min/kg

2003 Vancouver Marathon: 4:08:59

2002 Vancouver Half-Marathon: 1:45:54 (approx)

Step 2: Analyze Information

Method A - Performance Percentage

= Seek the Peak Pace of GMR AGW / PPGMR x Seek the Peak AGW of GMR

= 1:36:59 / (31:18/40:40) = 1:37:00/.77 = 2:06:00 Hrs

Method B - Age Group Winner -

Stage 3 Comparison to Grouse Mountain Run

GRPP% x 40:40min = (38:18/31:16) x 40:40 min = 1.23 * 40:40 min = 49:58min

Scroll down to the results of Seek the Peak 2009 until 49:58 min for Stage 3 = 2:00:00 Hrs.

Method C - Lactate Balance Point Pace

Pace at Lactate Balance Point x 16 km = (60 min / 11.26) x 16 km

= 5.32 min/km x 16 km = 85 min

Assumption: Somewhere I read that trail runs can be 30-100% slower than road running, which makes physiological sense due to the uphills, downhills and foot placement.

Method C = 85 min x 1.30 = 110 = 1:50:00 Hrs

Method D - Lactate Training Book Pace Prediction

Lactate Training Book where Lactate Balance Point V4 is 100% which is 10 km and 20km pace 98.8%, assume 16 km pace is 99% of V4

Method D = (5.32 min /km)/.99) x 1.3 x 16 km

Method D = 1:52:00 Hrs

Step 3: Interpret Information

I intuitively knew that I could reach a Grouse Grind time of sub 40-minutes. I achieved this on September 10, 2009. (Read the full article about gaining confidence.) This gave me the confidence that if I were to race with my current conditioning, a predicted time for Seek the Peak (2010 Event Info) between 1:52:00 hours and 2:06:00 hours is accurate. These four methods show us that they are within 14 minutes (~10%) of each other. How much more precision do you need to interpret and create a training plan? Sometimes too much information ends up being just data and stops us from taking action.

A very easy way to predict your time is to complete the race course during your training, e.g., do it in portions at or near race pace then add them all together. The additional benefits of this are that you will become familiar with the terrain and be more confident on race day.

Resources:

Janssen, Peter, Lactate Thershold Training: Human Kinetics 2001

Labels: endurance, heart rate training, hiking, maxV02, predicting performance, tempo

As the snow melts away and the green mountainside reveals itself, many are eagerly anticipating hiking the North Shore mountains, including the Grouse Grind. Trail running is also a popular sport these days with races like the Knee Knacker, Seek the Peak, Grouse Grind Mountain Run and the Iron Lung. You don't have to be an elite athlete to start to train so that you can enjoy these outdoor activities in the summer and early fall.

Your VO2 max level and your speed at VO2 max are strongly related to your ability to climb those hills for hours at a time without fatiguing. Your VO2 max is a measure of the maximum amount of oxygen you can use in millimeters per minute per kilogram of body weight.

Willmore and Costhill (2005, Physiology of Sport and Exercise: 3rd Edition) define VO2 max as, "The highest rate of oxygen consumption attainable during maximal or exhaustive exercise."

For the average non-athlete between 30 to 79 years old, VO2 max is 28 to 48 ml/min/kg for men and 20 to 38 ml/min/kg for women. (Click the link to see a more detailed table that includes athletes).

What makes hiking more challenging is that without an oxygen pack, you need approximately 21 ml/min/kg of oxygen to sustain the activity. For an unfit 70 year-old male with a VO2 max of 28, this is 75% of his maximum capacity. No wonder walking cross country is tiring when you are unfit.

Changes in altitude makes hiking even more challenging since there is an 8 to 11% decrease in VO2 max per 1000m in elevation change above 1600m. For our 70 year-old male, this means he will now be working at 80% of his VO2 max (Click here to read more about acclimatization). Add a 10-pound pack and the oxygen demand jumps to 28 ml/min/kg; this man reaches his maximum capacity before he even starts.

This certainly explains why he is out of breath and stopping every five minutes! However, the good news is that the cardio-respiratory system is very responsive and adaptive to appropriate training stimuli. Depending on your training, age and current fitness levels, studies have shown that six weeks to six months of training could increase your VO2 max by 15 to 20%; other studies have shown increases up to 93%. Since VO2 max is relative to body weight, reducing body fat also increases VO2 max.

Start by doing some type of cardiovascular activity at 65 to 85% of your approximate maximum heart rate (220 minus your age) for 20 to 30 minutes, three times per week. The fitter you are, the closer to the upper limit you will need to be to have an affect on VO2 max; if you are new to fitness, start at 60 to 65% of your maximum heart rate.

If you find walking on the flats easy, find some hills. Remember, you don't need to run. To increase your oxygen demand and heart rate indoors, use the incline on the treadmill and/or start carrying a 5-pound pack. Gradually add 2.5 lbs every two to four weeks to a maximum of 25% of your body weight, or the weight you would be carrying for an overnight trip. For one of our clients, that is 30 lbs. Either fill your backpack or, for the more serious, invest in a more comfortable adjustable weight vest.

Using a heart monitor and testing your VO2 max will make your training more accurate and effective. There are many ways to test your VO2 max without a lab (scroll down to evaluations), just make sure that you choose the appropriate test for your fitness level. It takes multiple tests to develop reliability and validity. Pay attention to the difference between multiple tests (every 6-8 weeks) to monitor your training success.

We strongly recommend using a Polar heart rate monitor to gauge your training and heart rate response to different terrains and intensities.

If you're in the Metro Vancouver area and you want to have your VO2 max tested or develop a more comprehensive and individualized hiking training plan that includes strength and flexibility training, contact Alfred Ball.

Resources:

Brian Mac

Sport Fitness Advisor

Labels: altitude, heart rate training, hiking, maxV02, outdoor sports